Welsh house prices to outpace UK growth
A new Savills analysis projects Welsh property values will climb 21% by 2031, exceeding the UK’s projected 15.8% increase, while showing persistent gaps in housing supply and the difficulty of achieving Wales’ social housing goals.
On November 10, the latest Welsh Housing Market Update was unveiled during Hugh James’ annual Housing Week event. The discussion focused on strategies for housing organizations to achieve sustainable growth amidst challenges in supply, community needs, workforce management, and leadership.
House Price Forecast
Savills suggests that Wales’ housing market benefits from its affordability, which could counterbalance higher interest rates for buyers. Currently, Welsh house prices are 71% of the UK average, a figure projected to rise to 73% by 2031.
Short-term growth is expected to be modest, with a 0.5% price increase predicted for 2027 due to higher mortgage rates. However, growth is anticipated to pick up from 2028 as interest rates decline and affordability improves.
Housing Delivery
The report cautions that the recent surge in housebuilding might not be sustainable. While completions increased by 10% annually by the third quarter of 2026, they still fell 12% short of the annual housing need. Planning consents were significantly below requirements, and housing starts lagged 21% behind completions.
Affordable housing delivery reached a record 3,865 homes in 2025/26, 17% above the five-year average. However, net delivery would need to rise by 49% to meet the Welsh Government’s target of 20,000 social and intermediate rent homes by March 2030.
Caroline O’Flaherty, Partner and Head of Social Housing at Hugh James, said: “This report highlights both the opportunity and the scale of the challenge facing the housing sector in Wales. The forecast for house price growth is very encouraging, but the figures on supply show how much work there is still to do if we are to meet targets.”
Caroline Jones, Director at Savills, observed that the report indicates a stronger five-year outlook for Welsh house prices compared to the UK overall, but also emphasizes the significant delivery pressures, with planning consents still falling short of estimated needs.
Housing Week 2026, which runs from 9-13 November, provides a platform for leaders and decision-makers to discuss these challenges and opportunities. Content from the week will be available to view on the Hugh James YouTube channel from Friday 13 November.
